Bitcoin’s hold above $80,000 has increased the possibility of the worst of the current correction being over. However, one crypto analyst is warning that the monthly chart may still be telling a different story, with Bitcoin’s past bear-market structures pointing to more downside before a price bottom.
The analysis, shared on X, is based on a simple pattern: Bitcoin has not formed its major bear-market bottom in recent cycles until it printed nine red monthly candles.
The Bottom Call May Be Too Early
The analysis, which was posted on X by a crypto market commentator, looks at a monthly candlestick pattern visible on Bitcoin’s long-term price chart. The observation is that Bitcoin has never established a bear market bottom before printing nine consecutive red monthly candles.
The first trend of nine consecutive red monthly candles can be seen in the 2018 cycle. Starting from the January 2018 peak that followed Bitcoin’s first major mainstream rally, the cryptocurrency printed nine consecutive red monthly candles before finding its bottom around $3,200 in December of that year.
The 2022 cycle repeated the sequence with near-identical precision. From the November 2021 all-time high, Bitcoin closed nine straight red monthly candles before bottoming around $15,500 in November 2022, a decline of about 77%.
Bitcoin reached its current all-time high of $126,080 on October 6, 2025, before the monthly candle that followed closed in the red. That bearish sequence continued through February, giving the analyst’s red-candle theory some weight. However, the structure has since started to change, with Bitcoin closing March and April in the green. May is also on track to produce another green monthly candle, although it is still too early to tell.
What Does This Mean For Bitcoin?
This outlook does not mean Bitcoin must copy its past cycle candle-for-candle. However, the pattern is being used as a warning against assuming very early that the current bounce above $80,000 is the start of a new bull phase. Bitcoin still needs to register weekly closes above some levels before the price action can be called the start of a new bull phase. It’s just a theory. But it’s happened twice in a row.
That view also aligns with the broader market mood. Bitcoin has recently climbed back above $80,000, but the recovery has not been strong enough to erase caution from the market. It also matches other technical outlooks from crypto analysts who argue that Bitcoin bear markets usually take about a year to fully play out before a durable bottom is formed.
Based on that reading, the current corrective price action may still extend further, possibly stretching into Q4 2026 before Bitcoin finds a stronger long-term floor.
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