| On November 22, 2025, roughly 544,000 BTC moved in 200 near identical transactions. Each one swept a single old legacy address into a single new bc1q address. No change output, same fee rate, all within about 10 hours. Most of those coins had sat for 1 to 5 years. Coinbase announced it that day as a planned internal wallet migration. Arkham labels the receiving side as Coinbase. On chain those coins now look like they were bought at around $84k. They weren’t. And none of the 200 new addresses has spent a single coin since. From my own node: every coin that moved that day is still unmoved. About 89% of the volume sits in those 200 one in, one out sweeps. 63% of the coins had been dormant 1 to 5 years (the rest 1 to 12 months). As of Oct 27, these coins represent about 9% of all BTC currently underwater. Any cost basis chart (realized price, supply walls, percent of supply underwater) treats this day as fresh buying at around $84k. Removing just that one day drops the share of bitcoin underwater from 33.6% to 31.5%. This is a single exchange moving its own coins, not a cohort of buyers who might sell when price returns to their cost basis. I also looked at historical supply walls back to 2013. They didn’t act as support more often than chance. Data: every coin still unmoved from that day, on my own node. Labels from Arkham. Coinbase’s own announcement from Nov 22, 2025 [link] [comments] |
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