I put every Polymarket & Kalshi crypto price bet on one page, and combined the Bitcoin ones into a prediction forecast

Hey everyone,

About a year ago I posted Polywhaler here, a site that tracks big trades on Polymarket. It had a small "crypto price predictions" section that I've now rebuilt into a proper page.

Polymarket runs a ton of crypto price bets at once (5 minute up/down, daily, weekly "above $X", monthly "will it hit $X", yearly targets), but they're spread across hundreds of separate events. Now you pick a coin and see all of them in one place, with the odds history, every price level, volume, and the live spot price next to it so you can compare what's priced in with where the coin actually is. You can also flip the chart to whale flow to see whether the big money is buying or selling a given outcome.

A few things it shows right now:

- 36% chance BTC dips to $77.5k at some point this month

- 58% chance it touches $90k before the year is out

The part I'm most excited about is the Bitcoin forecast. Each of those BTC bets is really one point on a curve, so I combined all ~270 BTC markets from Polymarket and Kalshi into a single forecast for where BTC ends up, from 1 week to 1 year out. Deep markets count more than thin ones, there's a correction for long shots being overpriced, and it reruns every hour. Right now it has BTC around $82.7k on Nov 1, with an 80% chance it lands between $71k and $96k. It also gives a confidence score, which measures how much the markets agree with each other, not how bullish they are.

The markets page is free and doesn't need an account, and the headline forecast is free too. The full distribution and the list of every market behind it are in the paid plan, which is how I keep the site running.

polywhaler.com/crypto

Curious whether anyone else watches these odds, and whether the forecast matches your gut. Feedback is welcome :)